Uplift modeling is essential for optimizing marketing strategies by selecting individuals likely to respond positively to specific marketing campaigns. This importance escalates in multi-treatment marketing campaigns, where diverse treatment is available and we may want to assign the customers to treatment that can make the most impact. While there are existing approaches with convenient frameworks like Causalml, there are potential spaces to enhance the effect of uplift modeling in multi treatment cases. This paper introduces a novel approach to uplift modeling in multi-treatment campaigns, leveraging score ranking and calibration techniques to improve overall performance of the marketing campaign. We review existing uplift models, including Meta Learner frameworks (S, T, X), and their application in real-world scenarios. Additionally, we delve into insights from multi-treatment studies to highlight the complexities and potential advancements in the field. Our methodology incorporates Meta-Learner calibration and a scoring rank-based offer selection strategy. Extensive experiment results with real-world datasets demonstrate the practical benefits and superior performance of our approach. The findings underscore the critical role of integrating score ranking and calibration techniques in refining the performance and reliability of uplift predictions, thereby advancing predictive modeling in marketing analytics and providing actionable insights for practitioners seeking to optimize their campaign strategies.

Uplift modeling, vital in online marketing, seeks to accurately measure the impact of various strategies, such as coupons or discounts, on different users by predicting the Individual Treatment Effect (ITE). In an e-commerce setting, user behavior follows a defined sequential chain, including impression, click, and conversion. Marketing strategies exert varied uplift effects at each stage within this chain, impacting metrics like click-through and conversion rate. Despite its utility, existing research has neglected to consider the inter-task across all stages impacts within a specific treatment and has insufficiently utilized the treatment information, potentially introducing substantial bias into subsequent marketing decisions. We identify these two issues as the chain-bias problem and the treatment-unadaptive problem. This paper introduces the Entire Chain UPlift method with context-enhanced learning (ECUP), devised to tackle these issues. ECUP consists of two primary components: 1) the Entire Chain-Enhanced Network, which utilizes user behavior patterns to estimate ITE throughout the entire chain space, models the various impacts of treatments on each task, and integrates task prior information to enhance context awareness across all stages, capturing the impact of treatment on different tasks, and 2) the Treatment-Enhanced Network, which facilitates fine-grained treatment modeling through bit-level feature interactions, thereby enabling adaptive feature adjustment. Extensive experiments on public and industrial datasets validate ECUPs effectiveness. Moreover, ECUP has been deployed on the Meituan food delivery platform, serving millions of daily active users, with the related dataset released for future research.

This paper proposes an approach to analyze an event log of a business process in order to generate case-level recommendations of treatments that maximize the probability of a given outcome. Users classify the attributes in the event log into controllable and non-controllable, where the former correspond to attributes that can be altered during an execution of the process (the possible treatments). We use an action rule mining technique to identify treatments that co-occur with the outcome under some conditions. Since action rules are generated based on correlation rather than causation, we then use a causal machine learning technique, specifically uplift trees, to discover subgroups of cases for which a treatment has a high causal effect on the outcome after adjusting for confounding variables. We test the relevance of this approach using an event log of a loan application process and compare our findings with recommendations manually produced by process mining experts.